Monday, August 28, 2017

Shock! Horror!





Loyalists,
Oh no!
Shock! Horror!
A whole weekend without any football?
In Melbourne?
Have they gone mad?
The good burghers of the Athens of the South will be beside themselves with absolutely nothing to do, as the AFL in its infinite wisdom again deciding to take the weekend off ahead of the finals.
There are Veteran's and Ladies matches scheduled to try and fill the gap, but it's not the same.
OK, it' been a long season for the players -- the poor things - but you'd expect that, at peak match fitness, they would be itching to rip into each other in the race for The Flag, while the fans are left bereft.
It's beyond me.
Still, Melburnians better get used to it, with only two Melbun teams in the top eight - there's two from Sydney, two from Adelaide, and one from the Golden West, while Geelong is certainly not in Melbourne by any stretch of the imagination.
Tell that to anyone down Corio Bay way, and they'll deck you.
It really is a minor miracle that the Swans are in the top 8, after losing their first six games of the season.
It didn't take long for the Stats Guru to work out that no team has ever achieved the feat in the 23 year history the top eight finals system.
And who cares that its been almost 20 years [Crows, 1998] since a team has come from outside the top four to win the Premiership?
If anyone can do it from sixth, Sydney can, after winning 14 or their last 16 games of the regular season.
As the Guru points out - if they had only won those two stupid games against Hawthorn, where they lost by a bloody point, and then a single goal - Sydney would have won the Minor Premiership.
In the back half of the season, the Swans beat all of the teams who finished in the top four -- so, surely, with Super Coach Horse calling the shots - they fear no one.
No one at all.
So, let's have a brief look at these jokers in the top 8, and their chances of thieving the Big One off the Swans.

1. Adelaide (9/4). Will probably win it, have the best team, but also a long history of shooting themselves in the foot, to wit, losing last game of the regular season to West Coast. The Curse of the Minor Premiership to contend with. Go close.
2. Geelong (5/1). The Bogey Man team. No-one likes playing the Cats, with good reason. Top chance if the cards fall the right way for them.
3. Richmond (5/1). Enigma. How did they finish 3rd? Who knows? They must have had a dream draw while no-one was looking. Likely to go out early, or could surprise, again.
4. GWS (4/1). Has the team to do it, but must return to early season form. Less than ideal warm up for finals losing last two games of regular season. Hankering for this. Top chance.
5. Port Adelaide (12/1). Dark horse. Been lurking around the top eight all year, and an outside chance of saluting the judges at good odds.
6. Sydney (4/1) In form team of the comp, sweeping all before them, except for one hoodoo side. Playing Champagne football at the pointy end of the season. Should be outright second favourite. Will go deep into September.
7. Essendon (40/1). Pretenders. Little hope.
8. West Coast (50/1). Very lucky to be in the finals at all, squeezing into the top eight on a 0.08% differential on for and against. No hope.

And who knew that L.Franklin would kick a bag in one of the best performances of his stellar career in the final match of the minor round?
Well the player and the coach did, from the outset, for mine
No one has kicked ten goals in a game in two years, and the highlight reel has been sent straight around to the National Film and Sound Archives.
My reading of it is it was all a well laid plan involving a bit of quid pro quo between Buddy and SC Horse.
Longmire might have said to him "now look Buddy, we'll make this Carlton mob toast, so what I want you to do is play like an old-school full-forward, don't stray out of the goal square or your pocket, and I'll get the mid-field to put it on yr chest so you can kick as many as you like and win a fourth Coleman Medal, but in return, I want you to win the Premiership for me".
Buddy would have jumped at the chance.
[It's not like the olden days, when proper full-fowards used to boot 100 goals a season, e.g. Plugger did it for the Swans in '98 and Warwick Capper did the triple figures twice in '86 & '87].
A bit of bling around the neck and something else for the trophy cabinet never hurts, but Lance is looking for redemption and sweet revenge after being unable to play in the 2015 finals through illness that was no fault of his own, and he experienced the unspeakable cruelty of being ROBBED BLIND in last year's Grand Final against the Western Bulldogs, who this year have been exposed as the frauds that they always were, failing to make the top eight.
The Stats Guru says it's been eight years since the reigning premiers have not featured in the top eight.
At long last the Swans mid-field is on fire - they could afford to rest the Hannebery Kiddie and the Papley Pearl in the last game after they'd been bashed from pillar to post in the back half of the season.
It's always handy to have two ruckmen - everyone knows it's the last chance saloon for Tipsy, while Sinclair is one of the most under-rated players going 'round.
Remember, West Coast traded Sinclair for Lewis Jetta, who can hardly get a game.
Guess who got the best end of the pineapple out of that one?
With Odd Head McVeigh and Old Man Grundy in form - what they lack in a yard or three of pace they more than make up for with footy smarts, both having football brains the size of watermelons - the backline is even more impregnable.
Appointing The Great JPK as skipper was a masterstroke, while the Coach's Pet, the Goal Kicker for North Adelaide in the form of Will Hayward can have just three touches in the game and score three goals, or something or another like that.
It's in his contract.
You have to be very very sorely tempted to take the 4/1 being offered about Sydney.
What's not to like?
So, relax, get mellow, knocked out, copastatic, this weekend - there's nothing else to do - and then we'll see what happens, eh?
Bring it on.

SYDNEY: 3.4, 6.7, 13.10, 21.12 (138). Goals: Franklin 10, Hayward 3, Rohan 3, Tippett, Reid, Kennedy, Heeney, Newman.
CARLTON: 1.0, 5.1, 8.4, 8.9 (57). Goals: Boekhorst 3, Curnow 2, Kruezer, Casboult, Pickett.
At Sydney Cricket Ground.
Crowd: 38,965.

Cheer, Cheer.